Insider Brief
- Funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, The Global Tipping Points report identifies critical climate thresholds at risk of being crossed.
- The tipping points were compiled by an international team of 200 researchers.
- According to these researchers, the tipping points are critical thresholds that, if surpassed, can result in significant and accelerated, irreversible shifts in Earth’s systems.
The global community is facing urgent threats as carbon emissions drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels, according to scientists.
Funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, The Global Tipping Points report identifies critical climate thresholds at risk of being crossed, with more potentially vulnerable by the 2030s if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Compiled by an international team of 200 researchers, these ‘tipping points’ represent critical thresholds that, if surpassed, can result in significant and accelerated, irreversible shifts in Earth’s systems.
Effects and Damage
“Tipping points across Earth systems pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity. They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of entire ecosystems, disruption of food production, and profound societal impacts such as mass displacement, political instability, and economic collapse.”
Identified Tipping Points and Current Status
- Collapse of Major Ice Sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic: Accelerated sea-level rise
- Current Status: Both ice sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Recent studies indicate that parts of the Greenland ice sheet have passed the point of no return, with significant ice loss expected even if warming is curtailed. The West Antarctic ice sheet is similarly vulnerable, with major glaciers like Thwaites showing signs of destabilisation.
- Thawing of Permafrost Across Arctic Regions: Release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas
- Current Status: The Arctic is warming at twice the global average, causing widespread permafrost thaw. Observations show that large areas of permafrost are already thawing, releasing carbon dioxide and methane, which further exacerbate global warming.
- Decline of Coral Reefs: Warming ocean temperatures and acidification impacting marine biodiversity and coastal protection
- Current Status: Coral reefs are experiencing severe bleaching events with increasing frequency. The Great Barrier Reef, for example, has suffered multiple mass bleaching events in recent years. Scientists warn that many reefs are at imminent risk of collapse, potentially within decades.
- Disruption of Oceanic Currents: Changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), crucial for regulating global climate patterns
- Current Status: Recent research indicates that the AMOC is at its weakest in over a millennium, likely due to increased freshwater input from melting ice sheets. While not yet fully disrupted, a continued weakening of the AMOC could lead to severe climate impacts, including altered weather patterns and further acceleration of ice loss.
By surpassing these ecological limits, society faces existential transition and physical climate risks- stemming from cascading effects, exacerbating climate impacts globally.
Rising Temperature
Recent data confirms the urgency of these warnings.
Just last month, June 2024, was the warmest June globally on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.66°C. This marks the thirteenth consecutive month that each respective month has been the warmest on record.
Moreover, June 2024 was notably 1.50°C above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, marking the twelfth consecutive month to reach or exceed the 1.5°C threshold. Over the past 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024), the global-average temperature has been the highest on record.
Rising temperatures are being especially felt in Europe- where the region, averaged 1.57°C above the 1991-2020 average for June, making it the joint-second warmest June on record for Europe.
Outside Europe, temperatures soared above average over eastern Canada, the western United States, Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. Despite developing La Niña conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific, air temperatures over the ocean remained unusually high across numerous regions, with the sea surface temperature averaging 20.85°C over 60°S–60°N, the highest on record for June.
These rising temperatures have profound implications for human health and wellbeing.
Heat-related deaths are on the rise, with extreme heatwaves increasingly common and more severe. In cities around the world, vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk- with heat-related stressors can contributing to dehydration, heatstroke, and cardiovascular problems.
Climate-related impacts are also becoming more severe.
Higher temperatures contribute to the increased frequency and intensity of forest fires. For instance, the devastating wildfires in Canada and the western United States in recent years have been exacerbated by prolonged periods of extreme heat and drought.
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe due to rising temperatures. The economic and social impacts of these events are becoming staggering- with significant implications for infrastructure, food and water supplies, and the displacement of communities. Most notably with recent wildfires leading to the evacuation of thousands from Jasper, CA.
The oceans are not exempt from these changes.
Warmer sea surface temperatures contribute to the bleaching of coral reefs, threatening marine biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions who depend on fishing and tourism. Additionally, rising ocean temperatures can lead to the expansion of harmful algal blooms, which can devastate marine life and pose health risks to humans.
Urgency to Mitigate
The urgency to mitigate these risks cannot be overstated. Immediate action is essential to limit global warming and prevent the crossing of critical tipping points. Strategies must include rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through enhanced international cooperation and ambitious national targets.
Examples such as promoting renewable energy adoption, accelerating the shift to electric vehicles, implementing nature-based solutions like reforestation and sustainable land use practices, and enhancing global climate resilience through infrastructure investments are crucial. Examples of startups already developing crucial solutions aimed at mitigation include:
Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal
Planetary Technologies– focuses on carbon dioxide removal through Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE).
Vesta– is a coastal carbon capture company focusing on carbon-removing sand made of the natural mineral olivine to coastal systems.Â
Running Tide– focuses on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) through ocean-based solutions. Their primary methods include ocean alkalinity enhancement and biomass sinking.
Ebb Carbon– focusing on ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) using innovative electrochemical processes and alkalinity enhancement
Equatic– focusing on an innovative ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach using seawater electrolysis with the production of green hydrogen.
Captura– specializes in direct ocean capture technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere on a large scale
Brilliant Planet– focuses on engineered carbon dioxide removal (CDR) through an innovative method involving the cultivation of marine algae in coastal desert areas.
Industrial Carbon Capture and Utilization
Svante– focuses on providing point-source, scalable, environmentally responsible carbon capture and removal solutions tailored to the needs of heavy-emitting industries.
LanzaTech– converts carbon-rich industrial waste gases into sustainable fuels and chemicals, reducing emissions from industry.
Earth Monitoring and Detection
Aclima– uses sensor networks to map and measure air quality, providing data-driven insights to improve environmental health.
Kairos Aerospace (Insight M) – provides methane detection technology to help businesses identify and reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations
Upstream Tech– uses satellite data and machine learning to monitor the effectiveness of conservation projects, including those related to coastal resilience.
These companies exemplify diverse approaches to addressing climate change challenges, from renewable energy innovations to sustainable materials and carbon capture technologies. Their contributions provide inspiration for action to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy and mitigate the impacts of global warming.
