Insider Brief:
- Emissions in the maritime sector are expected to meet 2030 reduction targets, but not the 2050 net-zero goals, researchers at the University of British Columbia found.
- The sector will pursue decarbonization via operational, technological, and alternative energy pathways.
- Movement towards decarbonization is likely to vary across the sector.
Emissions in the maritime sector are expected to meet 2030 reduction targets, scientists from the University of British Columbia found in a new paper in Earth’s Future, Phys.org reported. These findings shed light on the current and future state of shipping emissions and how maritime decarbonization strategies might evolve.
The UBC researchers surveyed 149 marine shipping experts in 2021, with these experts saying they expect a 30-40% reduction in the carbon intensity of the maritime sector by 2030, compared to 2030 levels.
2050 Net-Zero Goals for Shipping Emissions at Risk
However, the shipping emissions trajectory is not aligned with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) goals of net zero emissions by 2050, instead only reducing emissions between 40% and 75% of 2008 emissions.
“We can achieve these near-term reductions thanks to operational and technical measures but for net-zero emissions, we also need to tackle green energy,” senior author Dr. Amanda Giang, and associate professor at UBC, said.
Pathways to Decarbonize Global Shipping
Surveyed sources expect decarbonization to follow three pathways: operational, technological, and alternative energy sources.
For the short-term, decarbonization will happen via operational measures, including improvements and technological upgrades expected to play the biggest role in reducing shipping emissions.
In the long-term, shipping experts told the authors that alternative energies will drive decarbonization, though there is still no clear agreement on which fuels will ultimately be used.
Because different businesses may make independent decisions on which changes to make, the paper’s authors argue that there may be “varying decarbonization pathways” across the sector, with shipping emissions decreasing at different rates depending on the path chosen.
IMO Carbon Levy Adds Momentum to Emissions Reduction Efforts
The IMO late last week voted to impose a carbon levy for the sector, a move lauded by environmentalists and industry critics who had been unhappy with the sector’s slow movement to decarbonize.
